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EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
As sea level rise accelerates, our shores will be increasingly vulnerable to erosion. Particular concern centers around the potential loss of San Francisco Bay’s much-valued tidal marshes, which provide natural flood protection to our shorelines, habitat for native wildlife, and many other ecosystem services. Addressing this concern, this study is the first systematic analysis of the rates of marsh retreat and expansion over time for San Pablo Bay, located in the northern part of San Francisco Bay.

Key findings:
• Over the past two decades, more of the marshes in San Pablo Bay have expanded (35% by length) than retreated (6%).
• Some areas have been expanding for over 150 years.
• Some marsh edges that appear to be retreating are in fact expanding rapidly at rates of up to 8 m/yr.
• Marsh edge change may be a useful indicator of resilience, identifying favorable sites for marsh persistence.
• These data can provide a foundation for understanding drivers of marsh edge expansion and retreat such as wind direction, wave energy, watershed sediment supply, and mudflat shape.
• This understanding of system dynamics will help inform management decisions about marsh restoration and protection.
• This study provides a baseline and method for tracking marsh edge response to current and future conditions, particularly anticipated changes in sea level, wave energy, and sediment supply.

Recommended next steps:
• This pilot study for San Pablo Bay marshes should be extended to other marshes in San Francisco Bay.
• These initial marsh expansion and retreat findings should be further analyzed and interpreted to improve our understanding of system drivers and identify management responses.
• A program for repeated assessment should be developed to identify and track changes in shoreline position, a leading indicator of the likelihood marsh survival.

Hot springs in the Tijuana River? Antelope by the beach? Zip-lines over the international border?
Come find out what the Tijuana River Valley looked like in the not-so-distant past and how the river, estuary, and surrounding areas have changed over the past two centuries. Hear how researchers “recreated” the historical landscape and how this information helps us to better plan for the future.

San Francisco Bay’s connections to local creeks are integral to its health. These fluvial-tidal (F-T) interfaces are the points of delivery for freshwater, sediment, contaminants, and nutrients. The ways in which the F-T interface has changed affect flooding dynamics, ecosystem functioning, and resilience to a changing climate. As the historical baylands have been altered, the majority of contemporary F-T interface types have changed leading to additional F-T interface types within the present-day landscape. Illustrations of each F-T interface type and methods for classification are available here. 

This project is part of Flood Control 2.0. For further information please visit this project page. 

This technical memorandum summarizes the work to date carried out by the San Francisco Estuary Institute (SFEI) to generate a bathymetric-topographic digital elevation model (DEM) of the historical Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta (representative of early 1800s conditions). The historical DEM described in this document is an interim/draft product completed for Phase I of the Bay-Delta Natural Flow Hydrodynamics and Salinity Transport modeling project. It is expected that the product and methods described here will be refined during a second phase of the project.